On January 27, 2025, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Service Industry Survey Center and the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing released the China Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician at the NBS Service Industry Survey Center, provided an in-depth analysis of the data.
In January 2025, the approach of the Lunar New Year holiday and the return of employees to their hometowns impacted economic activity. The Manufacturing PMI stood at 49.1%, down 1.0 percentage point from the previous month. Meanwhile, the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 50.2%, dropping 2.0 percentage points, but still above the expansion threshold. The Composite PMI Output Index remained at 50.1%, indicating that China's overall economic output continues to expand.
Both the Manufacturing Production & Business Expectations Index and the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Expectations Index stood at 55.3% and 56.7%, respectively, reflecting strong confidence among enterprises regarding post-holiday market prospects.
I. Manufacturing PMI Declines, but Business Expectations Rebound
(1) Slower Production and Demand Growth
- The Production Index and New Orders Index registered 49.8% and 49.2%, respectively, down 2.3 and 1.8 percentage points from the previous month.
- Some industries remained in the expansionary zone, such as metal products, specialized equipment, and rail, ship, and aerospace equipment, with indices exceeding 51.5%.
- However, industries such as food & beverage processing, textiles, and nonferrous metal smelting fell below the expansion threshold, indicating weaker demand.
(2) Large Enterprises Maintain Expansion, While SMEs Contract
- PMI for large enterprises: 49.9% (-0.6 percentage points).
- PMI for medium enterprises: 49.5% (-1.2 percentage points).
- PMI for small enterprises: 46.5% (-2.0 percentage points).
- Despite the overall decline, large enterprises continued to expand, with Production Index (51.3%) and New Orders Index (50.6%) both above the expansion threshold. Medium and small enterprises, however, saw further contraction.
(3) Equipment Manufacturing Remains in Expansion
- Equipment Manufacturing PMI: 50.2%, marking six consecutive months above the threshold despite a 0.4 percentage point decline.
- High-Tech Manufacturing PMI: 49.3% (-0.4 percentage points).
- Consumer Goods Industry PMI: 49.1% (-2.3 percentage points).
- High-Energy-Consumption Industries PMI: 47.6% (-1.2 percentage points).
(4) Price Indices Rebound
- Raw Material Purchase Price Index: 49.5% (+1.3 percentage points).
- Factory Gate Price Index: 47.4% (+0.7 percentage points).
- Price recovery was particularly evident in petroleum, coal, and other fuel processing industries, while textile, paper printing, and cultural goods manufacturing also showed price growth.
(5) Business Expectations Show Strong Optimism
- Manufacturing Production & Business Expectations Index: 55.3% (+2.0 percentage points).
- Industries such as rail, ship, aerospace, and electrical machinery had expectation indices above 60%, indicating high optimism about future market prospects.
II. Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index Remains in Expansion
(1) Services Sector Maintains Expansion
- Services Business Activity Index: 50.3% (-1.7 percentage points), indicating slower growth in the service sector.
- Industries related to holiday-driven consumer spending, such as road transportation, hospitality, catering, and public facility management, saw improved market activity.
- Aviation, postal services, telecommunications, and financial services maintained strong growth, with indices exceeding 55%.
- Service sector business expectations remained high at 56.8%, showing continued optimism for future development.
(2) Seasonal Decline in the Construction Sector
- Construction Business Activity Index: 49.3%, falling below the expansion threshold due to seasonal factors such as the Lunar New Year and cold weather.
- Despite this, the Construction Business Expectations Index remained high at 56.5%, indicating strong confidence in the industry's near-term outlook.
III. Composite PMI Output Index Remains in Expansion
- Composite PMI Output Index: 50.1% (-2.1 percentage points), slightly above the threshold, reflecting continued expansion in business activity.
- The Manufacturing Production Index stood at 49.8%, while the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index reached 50.2%, underscoring the resilience of China’s economy despite temporary seasonal slowdowns.
On January 27, 2025, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Service Industry Survey Center and the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing released the China Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician at the NBS Service Industry Survey Center, provided an in-depth analysis of the data.
In January 2025, the approach of the Lunar New Year holiday and the return of employees to their hometowns impacted economic activity. The Manufacturing PMI stood at 49.1%, down 1.0 percentage point from the previous month. Meanwhile, the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 50.2%, dropping 2.0 percentage points, but still above the expansion threshold. The Composite PMI Output Index remained at 50.1%, indicating that China's overall economic output continues to expand.
Both the Manufacturing Production & Business Expectations Index and the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Expectations Index stood at 55.3% and 56.7%, respectively, reflecting strong confidence among enterprises regarding post-holiday market prospects.
I. Manufacturing PMI Declines, but Business Expectations Rebound
(1) Slower Production and Demand Growth
- The Production Index and New Orders Index registered 49.8% and 49.2%, respectively, down 2.3 and 1.8 percentage points from the previous month.
- Some industries remained in the expansionary zone, such as metal products, specialized equipment, and rail, ship, and aerospace equipment, with indices exceeding 51.5%.
- However, industries such as food & beverage processing, textiles, and nonferrous metal smelting fell below the expansion threshold, indicating weaker demand.
(2) Large Enterprises Maintain Expansion, While SMEs Contract
- PMI for large enterprises: 49.9% (-0.6 percentage points).
- PMI for medium enterprises: 49.5% (-1.2 percentage points).
- PMI for small enterprises: 46.5% (-2.0 percentage points).
- Despite the overall decline, large enterprises continued to expand, with Production Index (51.3%) and New Orders Index (50.6%) both above the expansion threshold. Medium and small enterprises, however, saw further contraction.
(3) Equipment Manufacturing Remains in Expansion
- Equipment Manufacturing PMI: 50.2%, marking six consecutive months above the threshold despite a 0.4 percentage point decline.
- High-Tech Manufacturing PMI: 49.3% (-0.4 percentage points).
- Consumer Goods Industry PMI: 49.1% (-2.3 percentage points).
- High-Energy-Consumption Industries PMI: 47.6% (-1.2 percentage points).
(4) Price Indices Rebound
- Raw Material Purchase Price Index: 49.5% (+1.3 percentage points).
- Factory Gate Price Index: 47.4% (+0.7 percentage points).
- Price recovery was particularly evident in petroleum, coal, and other fuel processing industries, while textile, paper printing, and cultural goods manufacturing also showed price growth.
(5) Business Expectations Show Strong Optimism
- Manufacturing Production & Business Expectations Index: 55.3% (+2.0 percentage points).
- Industries such as rail, ship, aerospace, and electrical machinery had expectation indices above 60%, indicating high optimism about future market prospects.
II. Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index Remains in Expansion
(1) Services Sector Maintains Expansion
- Services Business Activity Index: 50.3% (-1.7 percentage points), indicating slower growth in the service sector.
- Industries related to holiday-driven consumer spending, such as road transportation, hospitality, catering, and public facility management, saw improved market activity.
- Aviation, postal services, telecommunications, and financial services maintained strong growth, with indices exceeding 55%.
- Service sector business expectations remained high at 56.8%, showing continued optimism for future development.
(2) Seasonal Decline in the Construction Sector
- Construction Business Activity Index: 49.3%, falling below the expansion threshold due to seasonal factors such as the Lunar New Year and cold weather.
- Despite this, the Construction Business Expectations Index remained high at 56.5%, indicating strong confidence in the industry's near-term outlook.
III. Composite PMI Output Index Remains in Expansion
- Composite PMI Output Index: 50.1% (-2.1 percentage points), slightly above the threshold, reflecting continued expansion in business activity.
- The Manufacturing Production Index stood at 49.8%, while the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index reached 50.2%, underscoring the resilience of China’s economy despite temporary seasonal slowdowns.
